I’m writing this mostly as a snapshot of where I’m at this morning, in the aftermath of Trump’s resounding 2024 victory. I don’t usually foray into politics (a subject about which—in case you hadn’t noticed—very little can be said with certainty and many people have strong opinions). But like everyone, I’m trying to figure out how I feel right now, and hope this will help you do the same.
First Grief, Then Curiosity
As I watched last night’s NYT forecast tip ever more red—as I blearily checked my phone at 3 a.m. to see the call in Pennsylvania, and woke this morning to the news that Trump was not only on track to win every swing state but the popular vote as well—I found myself thinking: “How, after all that buildup, was it not even fucking close?”
But I think the wiser response, once the nauseating slurry of outrage and despair has settled, is: “How was it not even close?”
Really. I want to know what happened.
There Is No One Big Explanation™
And inevitably, in response to such a resounding defeat, different Democratic factions will offer different accounts of blame: Israel. A single debate. Bomb threats on election day.
At some point, though, you have to look at the decisiveness of the result and consider the possibility that it was no single factor that made things break Trump’s way; it was several of them stacked together, compounding one another. And in this scenario, it’s also the big structural explanations (immigration, inflation, grand visions of the country) that must carry more explanatory weight than marginal shifts in voter turnout.
So in the 2024 post-mortem (and turn toward 2026 and 2028) the smart analysis will be not on whether any of these factors affected the outcome but the extent to which they affected it—and which, if any, might be changed.
The Boring Path Remains the Most Likely
I don’t need to rehash all the reasons Trump remains unfit for office, or the loathsome ridiculousness of his agenda. And as Ezra Klein has recently argued, Trump’s second term will likely be worse on both these fronts due to a concerted effort to oust those who might inhibit him. The POTUS elect is undoubtedly an agent of chaos, and his return to office represents an unacceptable increase in the risk of a global conflict and the collapse of our democracy.
At the same time, an increase in the relative risk of these catastrophic events does not mean the absolute risk is very high. For better or worse, we’ve already had a Trump presidency. Did that administration inspire confidence with, say, its management of a global pandemic and peaceful transfer of power? No. No, it did not. But it also didn’t usher in a nuclear apocalypse or literal Handmaid’s Tale. Our institutions aren’t that weak.
Put another way: We’ve veered senselessly back toward the abyss—but that doesn’t mean we’re actually going to plunge off the edge. Most likely, we’ll just plod shittily along (insidious-packing-of-the-courts-and-erosion-of-our-rights bad, but not fascist-dictatorship-that-leads-to-WWIII bad); in five or so years, there will be a realignment/regression to the mean; and gradually we’ll drift away from the cliff and move on to whining about more pressing problems.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t be worried—only to moderate your pessimism. I still believe, as I did eight years ago, that Paul Simon has it right:
Beautifully said my son. 😘
I must temper my pessimism -- Gilad -- I am right there with you. Thank you for your words that help me reflect our current state of affairs. The following is something I shared with my own brother who thinks that Trump will provide answers. -- Government is entangled in the interpretation of how they want to recreate our current democracy. Wealth is created through capitalist control and power --- this is what is being protected. And due to this fact, government has not governed for the benefit of the common citizen. It has nothing to do with the parties -- our citizens are too eager to follow the social media interpretations for what a reality is that they seem comfortable with it. I am not comfortable and I will continue to voice my dissent. Trump and his cronies will impact how we govern, but I am of the opinion that we will delve into more chaos than balance. This chaos will not be limited to our borders, and it will be more difficult to govern effectively because of it. I have to be tempered with the decision that has been made by my fellow citizens, but if the current indication is to blame and call the dissenter stupid or brainwashed it will remain difficult to decipher the reality that is thrown at us as chaos.